| Metric | Result |
|---|---|
| Expected annualized return | 2.73% |
| Probability of negative return | 27.80% |
| 99% confidence VaR (1 year) | −45.08% |
| Expected holding period | 10.03 months |
| Expected total return (over realized holding period) | 0.59% |
The product behaves as a classic yield-enhancement structure: the typical (median) outcome is strong — an annualized return of 13.00%, i.e. the full coupon — but the distribution is left-skewed. Around 72% of scenarios deliver a double-digit annualized return, while roughly 30% of paths breach the protection barrier and about 28% end with negative returns — deep principal losses that pull the average return down to 2.73%.
You lend the CHF 1,000 notional and, in return, receive a high 13% annual coupon paid quarterly (3.25% each quarter).
| Metric | Structured Product | Underlying Basket (price) | Underlying Basket (total return, +dividends) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected annualized return | 2.73% | 11.54% | 14.49% |
| Expected annualized volatility | 17.36% | 30.02% | 30.02% |
| Probability of loss | 27.80% | 39.25% | 35.32% |
| 99% VaR (1 year) | −45.08% | −43.64% | −40.69% |
| Median annualized return | 13.00% | 8.32% | 11.15% |
| Scenario | Probability |
|---|---|
| Negative return (worst case) | 27.80% |
| Annualized return > 10% (best case) | 71.21% |
| Outperform the risk-free rate (~0%) | 72.20% |
Most points cluster on the upper plateau (product ~13%, near the coupon cap) while a downward tail shows scenarios where the barrier was breached.
The product's distribution is clearly bimodal: a large mass at +13% (coupons + par) and a loss tail down to roughly −59% annualized.
This note trades the underlying's upside for a high, fixed income stream and a meaningful (but not absolute) downside buffer. It rewards investors who expect the three shares to stay above 69% of their starting levels; it penalises those who are wrong on the weakest name.