| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expected annualized return | +6.52% |
| Probability of a negative return | 17.41% |
| 99% confidence 1-year VaR (1st pct.) | −39.63% |
| Expected holding period | 12.46 months |
| Probability of receiving the full coupon (no impairment) | 82.59% |
The product pays a fixed 13.80% p.a. coupon (quarterly) on three US technology stocks while offering only conditional capital protection. In the large majority of scenarios the investor simply collects the coupon, but roughly one in six paths ends with a meaningful capital loss.
Think of it as selling protection on the worst of three tech shares in return for a high, fixed coupon:
| Metric | Structured Product | Underlying (equal-weight basket) |
|---|---|---|
| Expected annualized return | 6.52% | 12.30% |
| Expected annualized volatility | 15.92% | 31.28% |
| Probability of loss | 17.41% | 40.71% |
| 99% confidence VaR (1 year) | −39.63% | −38.88% |
| Median annualized return | 13.58% | 7.29% |
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Early redemption at month 6 / 9 / 12 | 21.41% / 7.68% / 5.23% |
| Held to maturity (month 15) | 65.68% |
| — of which barrier hit and capital loss | 17.58% |
Most outcomes cluster at the product's capped ceiling (~13.8%) regardless of how far the underlying rallies (the flat top). Losses only appear when the underlying falls materially, and then the product's worst-of exposure can drop below the basket.
The product's distribution is a spike at the coupon with a left tail; the basket has a much wider (and right-skewed) dispersion.
This document is a quantitative simulation study, not investment advice or a recommendation.