tokenengine.ai
Structured Product Evaluator  ·  info@tokenengine.ai

13.80% p.a. Multi Barrier Reverse Convertible on AMD, Amazon & Netflix (Quanto CHF)

ISIN CH1593785533 · SIX Symbol AHUBTQ · Leonteq Securities AG (Guarantor: PostFinance Ltd)

+6.52%
Expected annualized return
17.41%
Probability of a negative return
−39.63%
99% confidence 1-year VaR (1st pct.)

Headline Simulation Results

Metric Value
Expected annualized return +6.52%
Probability of a negative return 17.41%
99% confidence 1-year VaR (1st pct.) −39.63%
Expected holding period 12.46 months
Probability of receiving the full coupon (no impairment) 82.59%

The product pays a fixed 13.80% p.a. coupon (quarterly) on three US technology stocks while offering only conditional capital protection. In the large majority of scenarios the investor simply collects the coupon, but roughly one in six paths ends with a meaningful capital loss.

Basic Product Information

How it works (plain language)

Think of it as selling protection on the worst of three tech shares in return for a high, fixed coupon:

Key Statistics (10,000 Monte-Carlo paths)

Metric Structured Product Underlying (equal-weight basket)
Expected annualized return 6.52% 12.30%
Expected annualized volatility 15.92% 31.28%
Probability of loss 17.41% 40.71%
99% confidence VaR (1 year) −39.63% −38.88%
Median annualized return 13.58% 7.29%

Outcome distribution

Outcome Probability
Early redemption at month 6 / 9 / 12 21.41% / 7.68% / 5.23%
Held to maturity (month 15) 65.68%
— of which barrier hit and capital loss 17.58%

Charts

Simulated outcomes — product vs underlying
Simulated outcomes: product vs underlying

Most outcomes cluster at the product's capped ceiling (~13.8%) regardless of how far the underlying rallies (the flat top). Losses only appear when the underlying falls materially, and then the product's worst-of exposure can drop below the basket.

Annualized return distribution — structured product
Annualized return distribution: structured product
Annualized return distribution — underlying basket
Annualized return distribution: underlying basket

The product's distribution is a spike at the coupon with a left tail; the basket has a much wider (and right-skewed) dispersion.

Scenario probabilities
Scenario probabilities
Risk / return profile
Risk return profile
Annualized return box plot
Annualized return box plot
Holding period and coupon distribution
Holding period distribution Coupon distribution

Investment Commentary

Good points
Trade-offs to be aware of

This document is a quantitative simulation study, not investment advice or a recommendation.